Tracking Poll Wave 3: No increase in Latino enthusiasm following conventionsby Latino Decisions |
WASHINGTON D.C. -- Despite
two weeks of widespread political coverage in which both parties made
an effort to reach out to Latino voters, enthusiasm about November is
still very much in question. Wave 3 of the impreMedia/Latino Decisions
tracking poll did not find any noticeable increase in levels of
enthusiasm or certainty to vote, and to the contrary, the poll found a
small decrease compared with two weeks ago. While general election
campaigning is just getting started and enthusiasm may peak in late
October, as of today, more Latinos say they were more enthusiastic back
in 2008 than they are in 2012. Still, President Barack Obama
continues to maintain a large lead among Latinos following the DNC
Convention with 66% support to 29% for Mitt Romney. Turnout though will be the key in many swing states, as we have outlined on the Latino Vote Map. Latino
voter turnout is going to be critical in states like Colorado, Nevada,
Florida and Virginia, and while a majority of Latinos currently plan to
vote for Obama, the bigger question is just how many will come out to
vote? In 2008 we saw record turnout, but so far in 2012 enthusiasm
remains a question. [View Full Wave 3 Results]
Further,
after two weeks of national convention outreach, both parties have seen
decreases in their favorability ratings. In week 1 of our tracking poll
congressional Democrats registered 64% favorability and in week 3 they
stand at 53% (however, Obama continues to perform better than
congressional Democrats with 72% favorability). Likewise, when asked
about how good or bad a job they were doing at outreach to Hispanics the
Democrats fell from 59% approval in week 1 to 49% approval in week 3
following the DNC. The news for Republicans is far worse. GOP
favorability among Latinos was 32% before either convention and is now
just 26% (and Romney tracks quite similarly with 27% favorability). The
percent rating Republicans positive on outreach actually increased, but
from an anemic 14% to only 19% today who say Republicans are doing a
good job reaching out to Hispanics.
While
the conventions gave both parties a chance to shine, it also opened up
an opportunity to unleash attacks against one another on a national
stage. According to the impreMedia/Latino Decisions week 3 tracking
poll, Latino voters identify too much fighting and negative politics as a
major problem. A clear majority of Latinos say fighting by both parties
in Congress is the real reason the economy is not recovering faster.
At
their convention two weeks ago, the Republican Party attempted to push a
message of economy, economy, economy as their leading mantra in winning
Latino voters, but the polling data does not support them on this.
Overwhelmingly, Latino voters reject the idea that the slow recovery is
Obama's fault. Two weeks ago our tracking poll found,
a large majority of Latino voters (68%) blamed the policies of the Bush
administration for creating the economic conditions we face today and
few blamed Obama policies (14%). Last week,
Latinos said they trust Obama and the Democrats to fix the economy by a
2-to-1 margin over Romney and Republicans (59% to 30%). And now this
week, a majority of Latinos blame partisan fighting in Congress, not the
President, for the recovery being so slow.
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