EDITOR’S NOTE: This
article originally appeared in the January 30, 2012 issue of The Nation magazine
WASHINGTON
D.C. -- José Díaz-Balart, chief political analyst for Telemundo, had one
important task during the September 7, 2011, Republican debate—to ask the
candidates about immigration. Díaz-Balart asked his question, got his answer
and was dismissed from the stage. The stereotype was fulfilled; a Latino asked
one question and the one question was about immigration. With that box checked,
the moderators and candidates were able to return to “non-Latino” issues.
The
problem is, the issues that keep Latinos up at night—like double-digit
unemployment rates, living at the poverty end of the wealth gap and having the
highest high school dropout rates in the country—go well beyond immigration.
Herein lies the challenge for President Obama. He must recast his connection
with Latino voters beyond a narrow focus on immigration and engage Latinos as
the multi-issue electorate they are.
It’s
easy to see why Latinos have been typecast within the narrow frame of
immigration. The vast majority are immigrants or the children or grandchildren
of immigrants. In 2008 then-candidate Barack Obama used the issue to connect
with Latinos by highlighting the importance of immigration reform. This
strategy was wildly successful and netted him close to 70 percent of the Latino
vote. Today that strategy is counterproductive. Latino voters are keenly aware
that “La Promesa de Obama”—as his campaign pledge for comprehensive immigration
reform became known—was not fulfilled. And now they have other priorities:
according to the latest impreMedia-Latino
Decisions tracking polls, economics have eclipsed immigration as
their top concern. For Latinos, the economy and the related issue of education
have come to demand the same level of attention that President Obama once gave
immigration.
Since
2009 minority unemployment has been in the double digits. At its height in
2010, Latino unemployment was at
13.9 percent; today it’s 11 percent. Latinos
have been the hardest hit in the recession, and they have the steepest climb to
recovery. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, Latino median wealth plummeted
66 percent between 2005 and 2009. The decrease in wealth nationally was the
most acute among Latinos, leaving one-third of the community either with debt
or no assets.
Latinos
are not only losing their jobs, benefits and homes but their hard-earned
position in the middle class. Within one generation families have gone from
working class to middle class and back to working class again. The wealth gap
between minorities and non-minorities is the largest since the Census Bureau
began providing this information in 1984. The white-to-Latino ratio of median
wealth in 2009 stood at 18 to 1, more than twice the ratio before the
recession. The gap between rich and poor has also become a serious problem
within the Latino community, with their wealth disparity the greatest of any
group.
In
addition to having experienced the steepest decrease in wealth, Latinos have
the highest birthrates and the lowest levels of education. Latino dropout rates
are triple those of whites and double those of African-Americans. Education is
particularly important to Latinos because more than one-third are under 18. In
2008–09, in the two largest public school districts, New York City and Los
Angeles, Latino children made up 41 percent and 74 percent, respectively, of
incoming first graders.
At
first glance it would seem that because of the magnitude of their economic
losses and their grim educational position, Latinos would be the most punishing
of the president’s policies. But the data suggest that Latinos want more
government involvement, not less, making them unreceptive to the message of the
GOP and particularly the Tea Party. During last summer’s debt debate, an impreMedia-Latino
Decisions poll showed that
83 percent of Latino voters supported
some sort of tax increase in the debt reduction plan. As reflected in the
figure below, forty-five percent supported a taxes-only route. Even a majority
of Latino Republicans preferred some taxation over a cuts-only approach to the
deficit. For Latinos, economic well-being is intimately tied to the economic
recovery of the nation; they are progressives who support a robust federal
government. The proposal to create a National Infrastructure Bank to bring
about job creation is exactly the type of policy that resonates with them.
The
GOP has also failed to win the support of Latinos on education. The
impreMedia-Latino Decisions polls show that 57 percent of Latino voters support
President Obama and the Democrats’ education policy, which has emphasized early
childhood education, school reforms and developing community partnerships.
Republicans were seen as the better option by 20 percent and a disillusioned 14
percent lacked confidence in both parties.
Indeed,
the Latino community’s most tangible achievements under the Obama administration
are in the realm of education. The education gap between Latinos and
non-Latinos shows clear signs of shrinkage. Dropout rates are decreasing, and
from 2009 to 2010 Latino college enrollment grew 24 percent, an increase of 5
percent over the previous year.
And
yet, despite recent comments by Jim Messina, President Obama’s 2012 campaign
manager, Latino support is not a given for the president. In a December 2011
impreMedia-Latino Decisions poll, 54 percent of registered Latinos
said they were certain to vote for Obama. This is a long way from the 70
percent of 2008. Tangible disillusionment was also apparent in the decreased
rate of turnout among Latino voters in the 2010 midterm elections, the Pew
Hispanic Center reported. In 2011 the president’s approval ratings among
Latinos hovered in the 60 percent range. However, this aggregate figure
combines “Strongly Approve” and “Somewhat Approve,” obscuring the fact that
more than half of his approval is from the lukewarm “Somewhat Approve”
category. The implication is grave, since participation is fueled by
enthusiastic voters who have strong feelings about their candidate.
If
the president is to get past his failed immigration pledge and reconnect with
Latino voters, he must do two things: highlight the natural ideological
affinities between himself and Latinos, and showcase the economic and
educational programs he has implemented and will continue to promote. Simple
electoral math puts Latinos at
the forefront of the president’s re-election strategy in the 2012
election. Latino voters make up at least 15 percent of the population in half
of the top swing states—Colorado, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada. They are a
crucial part of the electoral formula necessary to prevent President Obama from
being the third Democratic president in history not to get a second term in
office—and they deserve to have the full range of their concerns understood.
Dr. Victoria M.
DeFrancesco Soto is the Communications Director for Latino Decisions
and a Visiting Scholar in the Department of Government at the University of
Texas at Austin. Connect with her at: drvmds@latinodecisions.com
You can also listen to an
accompanying podcast featuring Dr. DeFrancesco Soto here.
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